The 2020 Guide to Retiring LEGO Sets

What Makes a Good LEGO Investment?

Historically, there are several factors that have affected a given set’s appreciation.  These are listed and described below:

#1: Popularity (Demand)

Typically popularity early in the life of the set translates into popularity in retirement, thus price premium.  A way to see popularity is to check Amazon sales rank – either via Keepa or in the product details section of Amazon.

#2: Time on Sale at Retail Stores

Time on sale is exactly what it sounds like. It’s the amount of time an item is available for purchase from retailers like Amazon, Walmart, or Target. If the time on sale gets shortened for one reason or another, the number of sets in circulation are reduced. If the time on sale is very long, there may be a lot of inventory between you and the price for which you’d like to sell.

#3: Unique Minifigures or Other Unique Pieces

Unique pieces in a set can also drive up the price of the entire set.  Below is an example of Davy Jones minifigure which only came in the Pirates of the Caribbean Black Pearl set.  The price of the figure drives the price of the set high very quickly.  In this case, there are two minifigs that are exclusive and highly prized.  The hat alone on this figure brings significant money. Bricklink has a function that allows you to see the pieces included in each set and the exclusivity of each piece.

#4: Price Efficiency

The objective value of a set can be determined simply by the price of it’s collective pieces.  Efficiency would be the ratio of that collective price vs. purchase price of the set. Typically, a $0.10/piece target is not a bad set to invest in. Here’s an example of a solid set from a price efficiency standpoint $29.99 msrp and 342 pieces – lower than $0.10 per piece and if you check the comparable sets, 76119 looks very strong.

#5: Uniqueness

If a set is very similar to another previously made set, from a consumer perspective, the price of the newest set will be limited roughly by the price of the previous set.

Below, we have an example of a remake on the left, and an older set on the right. Since these are both Cinderella carriages, an amateur collector might expect the newer set to eventually rise to $65. But of course, we’re no amateurs here at BrickScanner. 

Before you leap to that assumption, ask yourself: Why would a consumer buy the set on the left at a similar price? (⅓ piece count, fewer figures) 

The answer is: They won’t.

On the other hand, a very unique set with colorful dragons, popular movies, TV shows or cartoons made for the first time typically does very well.

Why is Brick Picking a Good Idea?

What is brick picking? Well, brick picking is similar to stock picking. You pick a LEGO investment based on the attributes above and take opportunities to buy in at low prices when presented.  The older the set, potentially the more urgency and volume you’d like to take on even a 20% off sale.

Ideally, every set you buy would be on clearance. However, many of the most popular sets are not widely available for 50% off or more. To make matters more challenging, it can be very difficult to acquire these sets in high volume just prior to retirement (which is difficult to predict).

When you’re able to identify LEGO sets that meet your criteria, often the best opportunity comes with 20-40% off sales on Amazon, Target, and Walmart. These might also exist in the form of a discount on a certain sale total or quantity purchased. Think of these sales as momentary stock market dips where you’re able to acquire shares without much fundamental shift in outlook.

When Should You Sell Your LEGO?

We won’t ever give you a price target for any given set because it’s very difficult to predict where the top is and everyone has different goals. However, since sales rank on Amazon gives you an idea of demand, why would you sell an investment with continuing strong demand that there are no more of?  It simply means that someone else is lined up to pay a higher price than you sold for.  In the Amazon US toy category, a sales rank of 50,000 equates to about 3 sales per day, 100,000 rank to about 1 sale per day.

In the example below, this set was widely available for $13 for over a year online and in stores allowing the investor to acquire a very significant number if desired.  What would be the merit of waiting for an additional $2-4 discount on clearance at the expense of quantity accumulated if the intention is to hold until 100k rank?  Waiting until the end on a very popular set or quick flipping a popular set at retirement could cost you significantly.  But one never knows what the future holds! Usually strong demand at retail translates to strong demand in retirement.

How to Use BrickScanner to Brick Pick?

We intend to use 500 days or approximately 18 months as a trigger to start automated notification of general retail sales purchase opportunities. If there’s a set over 500 days where the price drops, you’ll be notified. If there are single or multiple big box stock-outs on a single set over 500 days, you’ll be notified.

We see these as increased triggers for investment and accumulation. By using the filters noted above, along with a few others, we’re increasing our likelihood of spotting retiring LEGO sets. As always, it will be up to you to decide whether that investment will be right for you! When reviewing the sets that BrickScanner publishes, always confirm sales rank, set age, and availability.