Collection Inspection: LEGO 41366 Friends Olivia’s Cupcake Café
In this edition of Collection Inspection, we’re talking cupcakes. Specifically, LEGO Friends Olivia’s Cupcake Café 41366 is on the hot seat today.
Why LEGO Friends Olivia’s Cupcake Café 41366?
Olivia’s Cupcake Café 41366 is what I like to call my sleeper pick. I don’t call it a sleeper pick because it’s a long shot. It’s a sleeper pick because it’s potential isn’t immediately obvious.
Harry Potter Great Hall? Star Wars 20th Anniversary Snowspeeder? It’s easy to see how sets with blockbuster franchises can drive huge demand post-retirement.
But LEGO Friends? Maybe I’m just not the right target demographic, but LEGO Friends can feel less instinctual. Luckily, when you can’t trust your instincts, you trust the data.
When finding candidates to add to our collection, we lead with demand. Without demand, nothing else matters. And how do we measure demand using Amazon data? We use the Amazon Sales Rank.
Let’s take a look at the Keepa chart for June 2020, when Amazon was in-stock the majority of the time. Remember, the green line and y-axis on the right represents sales rank.
For almost the entire month, the sales rank trended below the 1,000 rank. For context, a Sales Rank below 20,000 is very strong. This is 20 times better than that.
Note: Read our 2020 Guide to Retiring LEGO to learn more about Amazon Sales Rank and Keepa graphs.
But what does a Sales Rank translate to in number of sales? While it’s wildly difficult to predict with accuracy at this level, we can use the Jungle Scout Estimator as a gauge. Let’s use the 180-day average Sales Rank to be conservative of 2,085. This rank is higher due to periods where Amazon went out-of-stock and price began to rise.
2,430 units per month.
81 units per day.
Of course, Sales Rank will rise with price so we can’t expect this performance long term. But that fact is exactly why we need a strong starting point. Even when the Sales Rank multiplies by 20, demand will be strong.
This is why we can buy dozens of a single LEGO set without fear of being stuck with slow-moving inventory. I’m not wondering whether I should buy 4 or 10 of a set like this because I know demand will eat it up. Instead, I’m wondering 50 or 100.
Okay, so we know the set is hot. Time to further validate.
Time on Sale at Retail Stores
As of August 2020, LEGO Friends Olivia’s Cupcake Café 41366 has been on sale for over 19 months (585 days).
The average lifespan for a LEGO Friends set? 13 months.
You can see why this set has been on my radar for a while now. I can’t predict the future but an early 2021 exit seems reasonable.
Unique minifigures or other unique pieces
Brickset tells us each of these minifigures are unique. While that is typically a good sign, LEGO Friends can be a bit tricky. Brickset is classifying uniqueness based on the outfit combination, which holds a bit less weight.
For that reason, minifigures and other pieces are not price drivers.
LEGO Friends Olivia’s Cupcake Café 41366 has an MSRP of $29.99 and 335 pieces. That equates to a price efficiency of $0.09/piece.
If you remember from our guide, we look for a $0.10/piece target. Boom.
I know what you’re thinking:
“LEGO Friends cupcake café? There couldn’t possibly be a comparable set that was already made.“
Allow me to introduce you to LEGO Friends Heartlake Cupcake Café 41119.
Released in 2016 with a $0.11/piece price efficiency, it’s obvious from the chart why this set makes a great comp.
|Time on Retail Market||19 months+||24 months|
The set ran for about 24 months (mostly below MSRP), trending below a 2,000 Sales Rank.
Note: A sales rank in 2016 is different than 2020, so don’t get too hung up on this.
Now what happened after LEGO 41119 retired at the beginning of 2018?
An immediate jump from the discounted price of $32 to $60.
7 months later? $70.
12 months later? $90.
Today, it sells for $125.
So, could our set (LEGO 41366) run up to meet LEGO 41119’s highs? Maybe. But that’s beyond any time horizon I care to hold for.
Those 7 month and 12 month post-retirement windows are where I’ll be checking back in on this set.
Previous Out-of-Stock Windows
I’m adding one last pulse check to solidify this set. I want to show you what happened the last few times this exact set went out-of-stock.
In July, it took less than 24 hours for the price to jump from $24 to $40.85 and a sales rank below 10,000.
How about in May when it was out-of-stock longer?
$56.88 with a sales rank of 13,000. If you had bought at $24.99, that would have been an immediate 63% return of $15.69 per set (including fees).
Let’s review if LEGO 41366 has met the criteria we look for in a typical LEGO investment, shall we?
- Demand? Check.
- Time on sale? Check.
- Unique minifigs? Non-factor.
- Price efficiency? Check.
- Uniqueness and comps? Check.
- Previous out-of-stock windows? Check.
As I said in the beginning, on the surface, this set wasn’t an obvious winner when I first saw it because of my familiarity with the set theme. But using BrickScanner’s criteria, I followed the data and found myself a winner.
Where to Buy LEGO 41366
As of August 2020, LEGO Friends Olivia’s Cupcake Café 41366 is available discounted below MSRP in most retail stores. Amazon.com is the only retailer with a tax-exempt program that still has this set available.
Note: As of August 5th, 2020, Walmart.com is out-of-stock. This set is available on LEGO.com, however, the price is at MSRP of $29.99.
About the Author
What about you? Does Olivia’s Cupcake Cafe have any true sleeper value? Or will you be passing on this one? Drop a comment below or tag us on social media if you’ll be adding this set to your collection
Where to Buy This Set
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Walmart shows it in stock right now online and in store (6+ at most of the stores around me) for $24.86 (3 left online, so gone soon). Amazon currently has that price matched.
Thanks Dave! Looks like out of stock already. Was out of stock when I wrote this yesterday so it seems like they may be restocking periodically. I don’t think this set is on its last leg just yet so should see some larger restocks soon.